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 Random thoughts VII

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MissLilly

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PostSubject: Re: Random thoughts VII   Mon Mar 12, 2012 1:55 pm

Quote :
The issue of the planet's climate is a no-brainer, regardless if one is a climate scientist or a lay person. Either way, a few minutes or less of logical and objective thinking steers one to the truth.

1. Clearly, our Earth's climate results from natural factors, NOT manmade factors.

2. It is possible that human activities can have some small impact on climate but most likely it is largely localized and strictly temporary in nature.

3. Regardless of the veracity (or lack of same) in the AGW (human-caused global warming) hypothesis, it is obvious that natural forces have far, far, far greater potential to affect and change climate on this Earth. And that in turn makes just about every aspect of human-caused climate change theory a moot issue in the long run if not also in the short run.

4. As a result of the above, there is no "there" there, when it comes to anthropogenic global climate change theory. This is because we now know for a fact that every imaginable extreme of climate has already taken place on this Earth in the past, from a planet with virtually boiling oceans and burning hot deserts to a vast sheet of ice covering the entire globe.. and everything in between.

5. Since all of the climatic conditions and sometimes drastic climate changes of the past were clearly caused by nature, any suggestion that humans are likely to overwhelm the natural climatic functioning of this planet is at the very least a highly illogical assumption. And the creation of and then promotion of a scientific field based on this assumption becomes a fraud as a result.

Bottom line is that today's "climate change" movement is strictly a political one, with a likely and largely hidden economic agenda backing it up, it is NOT a scientific movement, much less legitimate science.

Quote :
The fact that "global warming" had to be rebranded as "climate change" should tell you something about the validity of the claims.

Quote :
Recorded human history = 5,000 years
Approximate age of the earth = 4.5 billion

Sure, we know what the heck is going on. We'll extrapolate the last 100 years over billions.
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Shanna_

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PostSubject: Re: Random thoughts VII   Mon Mar 12, 2012 2:22 pm

Sleeping off rehearsal pains didn't help. My poor shoulders! It hurt to turn the steering wheel while driving today and I managed to bruise the palm of my hand. I think my next play demand should wrist guards and knee pads to go with my crash helmet.
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Span_ski

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PostSubject: Re: Random thoughts VII   Mon Mar 12, 2012 3:21 pm

MissLilly wrote:


Quote :
The issue of the planet's climate is a no-brainer, regardless if one is a climate scientist or a lay person. Either way, a few minutes or less of logical and objective thinking steers one to the truth.

1. Clearly, our Earth's climate results from natural factors, NOT manmade factors.

Under the natural order of things yes.. very true. But are cars / plane / factories blowing out tons and tons of gases into the atmosphere natural?

Quote :
2. It is possible that human activities can have some small impact on climate but most likely it is largely localized and strictly temporary in nature.


The fact is we don't exactly know what the impact is. If I held a gun out the window though and pulled the trigger, I wouldn't know whether the impact of my actions would be grave, or just scare a few neighbours? As we don't know what the impact is, erring on the side of caution to protect what we have can't be a bad thing surely.

Quote :
3. Regardless of the veracity (or lack of same) in the AGW (human-caused global warming) hypothesis, it is obvious that natural forces have far, far, far greater potential to affect and change climate on this Earth. And that in turn makes just about every aspect of human-caused climate change theory a moot issue in the long run if not also in the short run.

4. As a result of the above, there is no "there" there, when it comes to anthropogenic global climate change theory. This is because we now know for a fact that every imaginable extreme of climate has already taken place on this Earth in the past, from a planet with virtually boiling oceans and burning hot deserts to a vast sheet of ice covering the entire globe.. and everything in between.


This is a tricky one, because yes, natural forces, have and did, and still do have a massive potential to affect our climate, more potential perhaps than man. That said, talking about boiling oceans and giant ice caps, which yes all happened, happened to a young planet, and an unstable planet... with little life on it. The earth itself has at times naturally released way more CO2 and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere historically than we are now, such as during the formation of the deccan traps, but at that point most of the Indian subcontinent was giant gaseous volcano, emitting enough stuff block sunlight to such a degree that global temp dropped significantly. I think we can say the planet is a little more stable than that now, internally I mean. We still have tectonics yes, but not to the same degree as we did millions of years ago. If that kind of event happened again, it would be devastating to the planet, and if that was honestly still a significant risk, I think you'd have heard about it by now. Also, the argument that climate change has happened before (before humans existed and the planet had a completely different atmosphere and ecosystem btw) that its ok to speed up it happening again is a bit ridiculous.

Quote :
5. Since all of the climatic conditions and sometimes drastic climate changes of the past were clearly caused by nature, any suggestion that humans are likely to overwhelm the natural climatic functioning of this planet is at the very least a highly illogical assumption. And the creation of and then promotion of a scientific field based on this assumption becomes a fraud as a result.


I'll post some stats on man made global change for this one in a separate post (not climate related, but will give you an idea what we as a species are capable of) . I'm tired. Laughing

Bottom line is that today's "climate change" movement is strictly a political one, with a likely and largely hidden economic agenda backing it up, it is NOT a scientific movement, much less legitimate science.[/quote]

Quote :
The fact that "global warming" had to be rebranded as "climate change" should tell you something about the validity of the claims.

Global warming refers to an overall average temperature change annually. Not everywhere would get warmer, hence the call for the name change. Some places would probably get warmer, some cooler. You have to think of the interaction of at least 3 very complex systems - atmospheric, oceanic and to a degree tectonic. Plus yes, throw in some local change.

Quote :
Recorded human history = 5,000 years
Approximate age of the earth = 4.5 billion

Sure, we know what the heck is going on. We'll extrapolate the last 100 years over billions.

Not really how it works, there's a bit more to it. You ca find out a lot through carbon dating, oxygen isotope analysis etc.


About the money argument though.. I can't buy that one. Separate post for that I think...

This was fun!!!
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Dina

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PostSubject: Re: Random thoughts VII   Mon Mar 12, 2012 3:34 pm

Pretty much amen, hannah!
I just got home therefore it's very convenient for me that you already summed it up so nicely.

No - it's not just a scam or a lie.
If I find the time (and the english sources, because doing this in a foreign language is just UGH) I'll reply a bit more Hannah-like and profound as well.
But to just say "it's nature" is a bit naive and I think even dangerous and irresponsible.
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Span_ski

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PostSubject: Re: Random thoughts VII   Mon Mar 12, 2012 3:54 pm

Shanna_ wrote:
Sleeping off rehearsal pains didn't help. My poor shoulders! It hurt to turn the steering wheel while driving today and I managed to bruise the palm of my hand. I think my next play demand should wrist guards and knee pads to go with my crash helmet.

Like I said...



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MsFalange wrote:
Pretty much amen, hannah!
I just got home therefore it's very convenient for me that you already summed it up so nicely.

No - it's not just a scam or a lie.
If I find the time (and the english sources, because doing this in a foreign language is just UGH) I'll reply a bit more Hannah-like and profound as well.
But to just say "it's nature" is a bit naive and I think even dangerous and irresponsible.

Cheers! When I hear the phrase Hannah-like though it normally refers to some sort of irresponsible action I've undertaken Laughing. Usually less profound Laughing

I do have more to back up my stuff btw. But I will admit there is some scaremongering that goes on in the media, as with everything though I guess. It is still real though!!

My brain is literally swimming with science based facts right now. I'd forgotten what it was like to switch them on... damn. Feels good. lol
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MissLilly

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PostSubject: Re: Random thoughts VII   Mon Mar 12, 2012 4:02 pm

The thing is though Hannah, is that I am not against preservation of nature. Not at all. Who would be? I'll pay to save the rainforests, to have cleaner air to breathe, and whatever it takes. I just don't want to be lied to. I'm not buying into that climate change is all our fault, and that we can in fact stop the warming and cooling of the earth. I don't think we have the power to do that. In the grand scheme of things, humans are not gods, though some might like to think they are.
The earth has gone through different stages of change, and it will again. It's foolish to believe anything else, even if we may or may not be around to see it with our own eyes.

And I can argue the fact that everything that is spewed into the atmosphere actually comes from the earth, so it is natural. Whether it is healthy for humans and other living and breathing species is another issue completely. We're flawed by design, or we'd never get sick or be affected by anything.

I believe that if politicians really cared for the well-being of our nature and species, they'd make that their case. And not scare the general population with things that most likely are out of our control. Prepare for it, but do not exaggerate it and make us pay out of our pockets thinking we can stop it. That just makes me angry, and want to fight them.

If their intentions were really good, why is there a need for manipulating data?
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Dina

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PostSubject: Re: Random thoughts VII   Mon Mar 12, 2012 4:34 pm

Okay here I go:

The main argument was: Climate Change has always happened. It's natural!

True. At least party. There has always been climate changes, BUT NEVER has there been one, that developed this quickly, meaning plants and animals had more time to adjust to it.
Also, then there weren't 6.7 billion people on this planet, that were demanding food, water and wealth.

According to an IPCC-report, eleven of the twelve years between 1995 and 2006, belonged to the warmest since the instrumental measurement of the global earth's surface temperature (since 1850).

Also: In the preindustrial time, the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere was at 280ppm. Today it's almost 380ppm, leading to a global warming of the temperature of 0.8°C

The role of us humans in the carbon dioxide emission is way too small, to mean anything for the climate


Again. At first sight, this is true.
Humans release more than 25 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere by burning fossil sources.
If you compare that to the more than 550 billion tons of CO2 the entire biosphere releases, that seems like nothing

The important difference is though: The CO2 that develops in natural ways (breathing, decay), is also bound again in natural ways (stocked in the ground or sea, stored in wood).

The burning of coal, gas and oil on the other hand releases this CO2, that has been stocked over millions of years from their storage - therefore it disorganizes the technically balanced carbon-balance in the atmosphere.

Money, Money, Money

It's actually the opposite of what this tries to tell us imo.
Companies of the fossil energy sources make a profit worth billions with the export of gas and oil (and I am saying this as a future employee in this sector Wink )
With the investment in the renewable energies, the demand toward oil and gas is dropping.

This is why THEY try to influence politics and sciences. (See ExxonMobil that influenced the Bush-government to disguise the issue of the climate change)





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MissLilly

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PostSubject: Re: Random thoughts VII   Mon Mar 12, 2012 6:13 pm

We've known about renewable energy for ages. Solar power, hydroelectric power, wind power. All of these are applicable all over the world, and would be much cheaper for the public than gas and oil.
If they really cared, they'd have implemented it world wide long ago. So yes, money talks. How do you think politicians and scientists can be influenced, if they're not the ones influencing it?
Because they get paid off, or hold stock in these companies, and it's also better to have us pay first for all the oil and gas, then have us pay to fix the damage afterwards.
Because none of them would earn the money they have now, if we were all on renewable energy.

Money is power, and power corrupts.
Simple truth.

I'm just thinking, that as during an ice age, glaciers expand, then when there is no ice age, they melt. Their melting will eventually disturb the ocean currents, and prevent heat to get around. Then we're do for a new ice age, and they will again expand, and do it all over again. And we as humans cannot stop that.
And we certainly haven't been around long enough to have caused or gotten rid of the previous ice ages that have already come and gone.

Do I worry if we may be speeding it up, if that should be a fact, which I don't entirely believe? No, I don't really. Because it will be inevitable anyway. Someone, at some point, will have to suffer through the worst of that, if we as humans don't blow ourselves to Hades long before then.

I do care that the life on earth today is happy and healthy, and I'll do what I can for them. But I do not believe we're really making that much of a difference in the global climate, and if we are, what's the point of postponing the inevitable anyway?
I'm not saying I do believe it, but if I did, I'd rather suffer it now, than have my children suffer it later.
It's not that simple of course. But does it make sense?
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Span_ski

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PostSubject: Re: Random thoughts VII   Mon Mar 12, 2012 7:54 pm

Ok, so there's a lot to respond to there. Some very good points made. Some extremely valid, and that I don't dispute.

But first I'll go back to my point about man's impact. This is a small part of a much bigger article that was published way back in 2004. Still holds true though, and I wish I had could find links to the graphs, because when you see if graphically it's very disturbing.

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn4797-earth-faces-sixth-mass-extinction.html

MissLilly wrote:
The thing is though Hannah, is that I am not against preservation of nature. Not at all. Who would be? I'll pay to save the rainforests, to have cleaner air to breathe, and whatever it takes. I just don't want to be lied to. I'm not buying into that climate change is all our fault, and that we can in fact stop the warming and cooling of the earth. I don't think we have the power to do that. In the grand scheme of things, humans are not gods, though some might like to think they are.
The earth has gone through different stages of change, and it will again. It's foolish to believe anything else, even if we may or may not be around to see it with our own eyes.

And I can argue the fact that everything that is spewed into the atmosphere actually comes from the earth, so it is natural. Whether it is healthy for humans and other living and breathing species is another issue completely. We're flawed by design, or we'd never get sick or be affected by anything.

I believe that if politicians really cared for the well-being of our nature and species, they'd make that their case. And not scare the general population with things that most likely are out of our control. Prepare for it, but do not exaggerate it and make us pay out of our pockets thinking we can stop it. That just makes me angry, and want to fight them.

If their intentions were really good, why is there a need for manipulating data?

The argument that everything they we're pumping into the atmosphere is natural is true. Fossil fuels are natural, they came from the earth, and were made over millions and millions of years, and act as whats known as a carbon sink. One of the main ways the earth naturally deals with carbon, storing it, keeping in a solid form and out of the atmosphere. The rate at which we are reintroducing that carbon whether it be Co2, methane or anything else into the atmosphere, is not natural. If man were not on the planet, it would not be happening. That's a fact. The dinosaurs and all other great major animal groups that are now extinct, did not do anything like what we are doing. To compare our actions to theirs isn't realistic.

MissLilly wrote:
We've known about renewable energy for ages. Solar power, hydroelectric power, wind power. All of these are applicable all over the world, and would be much cheaper for the public than gas and oil.
If they really cared, they'd have implemented it world wide long ago. So yes, money talks. How do you think politicians and scientists can be influenced, if they're not the ones influencing it?
Because they get paid off, or hold stock in these companies, and it's also better to have us pay first for all the oil and gas, then have us pay to fix the damage afterwards.
Because none of them would earn the money they have now, if we were all on renewable energy.

Money is power, and power corrupts.
Simple truth.

I'm just thinking, that as during an ice age, glaciers expand, then when there is no ice age, they melt. Their melting will eventually disturb the ocean currents, and prevent heat to get around. Then we're do for a new ice age, and they will again expand, and do it all over again. And we as humans cannot stop that.
And we certainly haven't been around long enough to have caused or gotten rid of the previous ice ages that have already come and gone.

Do I worry if we may be speeding it up, if that should be a fact, which I don't entirely believe? No, I don't really. Because it will be inevitable anyway. Someone, at some point, will have to suffer through the worst of that, if we as humans don't blow ourselves to Hades long before then.

I do care that the life on earth today is happy and healthy, and I'll do what I can for them. But I do not believe we're really making that much of a difference in the global climate, and if we are, what's the point of postponing the inevitable anyway?
I'm not saying I do believe it, but if I did, I'd rather suffer it now, than have my children suffer it later.
It's not that simple of course. But does it make sense?

Pretty much everything you say about money and power I agree with. Except that the countries who don't want to deal with climate change are the countries, who need the oil industries to continue. Ok, gonna say it the US. We, have a global crisis because of oil, we have had more wars in the last 20 years because of oil, than I care to remember. Because some countries more than others need it. They would break without it. All conflict in the middle east boils down to the fact it's sitting on a giant oil field. Yes, there are others in the world, I would be remiss not to mention the UK's current squabble over a tiny island in the Atlantic with Argentina..... miles away from here.. for one reason... oil. I don't agree with any of it.

A hell of a lot of the "climate change isn't real science" propaganda is funded by politicians of these countries.. In a kind of round about way. All I'll say is that Dick Cheney was the CEO of Halliburton, the world's largest oilfield services company. They made millions after the war. They still are making millions.

I think, and I may be wrong on this but Norway taxes its businesses higher than any other in the world for the CO2 emissions. Do I think that's fair... no. Of course I don't. I really hope this will be helping your economy in the long run. That your businesses will be able to survive better with a lack of oil, and your country better equipped in terms of natural resources.

About the children suffering point, unfortunately the thing with a massive climatic shift is once it's done you cant go back. The shortest one I can think of lasted over 1000 years, and that was tiny by most standards, you would be looking at more like 500,000 (ish??) years for the length of a glacial period, so many generations will be dealing with the effects. We're already in an ice age anyway.

I don't doubt there are some misconceptions regarding pushing climate change, but please believe me the same could be said about the people who tell you it doesn't exist. Keep an open mind. There is some truth to it, and I guess the hardest truth... that no one can spin... is that they don't know what's going to happen. No one does, because no species that can talk has lived long enough to be able to.

Irrespective of all of this I'll back the green push, because whichever way you look at it this planet will run out of oil. The more prepared a country is for that, the better.

I hope I don't sound preachy in this, because I don't mean to honestly. Like I said I do agree with a lot of your points.

smile
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Mike`

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PostSubject: Re: Random thoughts VII   Mon Mar 12, 2012 8:52 pm

I kissed that girl I've been hanging out with tonight. smile We decided to walk home, I kissed her in the rain before I let her go in; told her her boyfriend could piss off and she could slap me after if she wanted; she didn't.

And it's spring and I'm in such a good mood.
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Span_ski

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PostSubject: Re: Random thoughts VII   Mon Mar 12, 2012 9:33 pm

Sounds like a productive evening Mike smile Happy days!
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MissLilly

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PostSubject: Re: Random thoughts VII   Mon Mar 12, 2012 9:34 pm

I'm gonna come back to this tomorrow Hannah! It's a little too heavy a subject for this time of day I realized. I started to read your link and answer, but then found I couldn't actually be bothered right now.

But I don't find you preachy at all, so don't worry about that! And I do try to keep an open mind. Just sometimes I'm a little set in my ways and beliefs, unfortunately Laughing
Nothing wrong with having it challenged though smile
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Span_ski

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PostSubject: Re: Random thoughts VII   Mon Mar 12, 2012 10:40 pm

I'm super glad you don't find me preachy. Good times! It is really late. I'm knackered and I actually have to get up for something tomorrow.

Tomorrow though.. or maybe the day after lol? Laughing

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Sez

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PostSubject: Re: Random thoughts VII   Mon Mar 12, 2012 11:59 pm

What a nice day for a big oil fire near my house today:

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Dina

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PostSubject: Re: Random thoughts VII   Tue Mar 13, 2012 3:10 am

Span_ski wrote:

Pretty much everything you say about money and power I agree with. Except that the countries who don't want to deal with climate change are the countries, who need the oil industries to continue. Ok, gonna say it the US. We, have a global crisis because of oil, we have had more wars in the last 20 years because of oil, than I care to remember. Because some countries more than others need it. They would break without it. All conflict in the middle east boils down to the fact it's sitting on a giant oil field. Yes, there are others in the world, I would be remiss not to mention the UK's current squabble over a tiny island in the Atlantic with Argentina..... miles away from here.. for one reason... oil. I don't agree with any of it.

A hell of a lot of the "climate change isn't real science" propaganda is funded by politicians of these countries.. In a kind of round about way. All I'll say is that Dick Cheney was the CEO of Halliburton, the world's largest oilfield services company. They made millions after the war. They still are making millions.


Amen, again.

Re: renewable energy: It costs the companies incredibly much, to get away from these fossil sources and into the renewable ones.
Not only the developing, but the transportation of the power and the logistics behind that. There are a lot of miles to be put behind, to get the power of an offshore wind-park to the consumer.

The argument on them manipulating the politics just doesn't make any sense. They try their hardest to keep burning oil etc. (lke Hannah already pointed out so very nicely).
They love their old methods, it's what made, and still is making, them rich.


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Charles

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PostSubject: Re: Random thoughts VII   Tue Mar 13, 2012 3:49 am

Gah! It's far too early for Beyonce this loud. Especially with only 3 hours sleep. My head hurts...

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